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As it is known, global climatic change
is expected to impact on sustainable
perspective development of the Aral Sea
basin.
This impact is mainly directed to the
volume of available water resources in
the region.
Total water resources of the Aral Sea
basin are 130-135 km3. Nearly
10 km3 of them are lost.
Water intake accounts for about 90 % of
general available water resources. After
the average temperature has risen by
1 °C over the last 35 years and the
volume of glaciers has reduced by 22 %
for the same time, it is predicted by
various scenarios that by 2020 water
resources scarcity would have been rise
as a result of evaporation increase and
water resources decrease by from 6 to
20 km3 every year (or by
5-15 % of total volume).
The estimates of the Aral Sea basin
climate change impact significantly
differ depending on methods, approaches
and so on. Most of them are aimed to
determine available water resources
reduction.
In this situation it is important to
show the means of demand shortening that
can lead to reduction of pressure on
water resources in the basin. Since
agriculture is the biggest water
consumer (about 85 %), it is important
to evaluate irrigation demands for water
taking into account temperature regime,
arid climate, cropping structure,
management at farm level and others to
determine the means of water demands
shortening.
Such assessment has two main aspects:
Tactical aspect — at farm level — the
issues of water saving, cropping
structure change and others are
considered;
Strategic aspect — at national and
oblast level — it is intended for issues
of interstate cooperation, rational
water use and allocation determination,
including food basket regulation.
The thematic scope and the main problems
of the dialog are as follow:
- Water and food security ensuring
- Potential conflicts
- Water and environment
- Water quality and human health
- Climatic changes impact
- Communications improvement
- Water for socio-economic
development
- Ecological disaster
The main directions of the actions:
- Demonstrating at farm level the
means of water consumption
shortening and water productivity
increase, based on study of the
results of many regional projects (WUFMAS,
A-2 GEF,
IWRM-Fergana,
etc.).
- Demonstrating at the national
level the means of general water
demands reduction and of sustainable
development ensuring in the region
on the basis of mutually beneficial
cooperation in water resources
management, cooperative system
formation in agricultural
production.
For demonstration it is planned to use
Aral Sea Basin Management Model (ASB-MM),
created by the specialists of
SIC ICWC and
Resource Analysis
(Netherlands) under the financial
support of UNDP. This model unites
socio-economic and hydrological models
that will help to analyze both
socio-economic situation and water
resources management.
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